Title: Modeling the Central California Coastal Upwelling System: Physics, Ecosystems and Resource Management

Lead Investigator: Francisco P. Chavez, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

Project Partners: A. De Vogelaere (MBNMS), Y. Chao and Y. Song (NASA/JPL), J. McWilliams and P. Marchesiello (UCLA), R. Maffione (Hobi Labs), J. Kindle (NRL), J. Paduan (NPS), F. Chai (U. Maine), B. Marinovic (UCSC), R. Barber (Duke) and J. Ryan (MBARI).

Project Objectives:

1. To develop a high-resolution coastal model that will simulate physical, chemical, and biological processes within the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (MBNMS). The coastal model will be nested within regional and basin-scale models and will assimilate global ocean nowcasts and data from satellite and in situ sensors.
2. To apply model results to solve practical coastal ocean-related problems.
3. To provide information to local, state and federal agencies for coastal ocean management, planning and policy.

Activities/Accomplishments to date:

• The observational base for model validation has been established from the extensive MBARI and California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI) databases.
• The coastal model has been configured, and computing resources for model testing have been expanded. Results from previous regional modeling efforts from the NOPP/ICON program are being incorporated into model design.
• Initial model validation has focused on comparison of model results with long-term mean seasonal conditions observed along two transects.
• The ecosystem model has been developed to include additional chemical tracers, and it has been coupled with the physical model. The carbon dioxide component of the model has been parameterized with relationships derived from MBARI observations.
• Solar radiation forcing of the model system has been investigated to determine if forcing fields available from government and academic institutions accurately represent conditions measured at MBARI moorings within the MBNMS.

Anticipated Results/Impact:

• The rich historical database and excellent matrix of real-time ocean observing systems available within the MBNMS will foster development of the next generation of coupled coastal physical-biological models.
• The model will enable the managers of the MBNMS to fulfill their mandate of promoting "resource protection, research, education, and public use." Long-term (decadal and longer) model simulation and prediction will contribute to policy, and short term simulation will guide management. Model results will also direct future observational efforts within the MBNMS.
• The project will establish cooperative relationships between government, academic, non-profit and industrial institutions that will benefit future research efforts.

12/28/00

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